Signing a Memorandum of Understanding, a brainchild of President Obama’s administration commits Pakistan and Afghanistan to reach a Transit Trade Agreement by the end of this year. Although, a lot of opposition is expected against this MoU in Pakistan, yet it has been taken enthusiastically not only by the signatories i.e. Pakistan and Afghanistan but also by the other stakeholders, the top of which are US and India. Rather, the so -called other stakeholders or the working hands behind this curtain seem to be much more happy than the original signatories on account of the benefits they foresee; although, no name of such a beneficiary has been mentioned in this MoU. It is worth-mentioning here that Pakistan is already a transit route for Afghanistan’s imports and exports through the Karachi Port and this transit has never been interrupted on the basis of tension which arose many a time between Islamabad and Kabul in the recent past. Almost all the previous governments in Pakistan have been asked to allow New Delhi the transit facility to Kabul, but such a demand has always met a refusal by the Pakistani governments in order to contain India from becoming a dominant economic power in the region. Even, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had denied such a transit route for India. And this MoU has to go through the National Assembly in order to be transformed into a treaty, until then it has no binding value for any of the signatories. President Karzai, knowing well about his potency, which could never tress pass the borders of Kabul, the Green Area, sees it as an opportunity to serve US while availing trade benefits with India as a big bonus. On the other hand, New Delhi is happy to find out a route which will enable India nourish its new markets i.e. Afghanistan and beyond that the Central Asia, directing towards the dream of a dominant economic power in the region. There is a chance that New Delhi, having approach to Afghanistan will be able to play an important role in supporting US logistics to Afghanistan. In fact, New Delhi was in need of such a route since long, especially after the establishment of Central Asian Republics, which may now be fulfilled; thanks to the weak leadership in Pakistan. In addition, such a route will also facilitate India in nurturing its culture beyond borders; be noted that a dozen Indian consulates are already functional in Afghanistan. Position of Pakistan in this agreement was not more than its status, which it has been granted while tried to argue with the USA on the matter of Drone attacks. It would be relevant to mention here that country like Bangladesh has refused to give India the transit route for Assam, from its territory, considering it a threat to its sovereignty but Pakistan, having proofs of Indian involvement in Balochistan (and many other), could not do so. On Wednesday, when parties were to sign the MoU, the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton kept on showing her zeal without divulging that the USA would get some benefit out of it and highlighting the so-called economic benefits the signatories are going to avail after signing this agreement. She said ‘This is an historic event. This agreement has been under discussion for 43 years without resolution.’ She further added, “Afghanistan and Pakistan have reached an important milestone in their efforts to generate foreign investment and stronger economic growth and trade opportunities.” Thanks to Secretary Clinton for elaborating one facet of the matter and for holding the other under the cover; after all this is what we call Diplomacy. Another important thing which requires due consideration was her statement in which she said, “Nothing opens up an area to economic development better than a good road with good transit rules and an ability to transport goods and people effectively”. Here, one has to agree with her statement. But the point to be noticed is as to what should be the criteria of “Good Transit Rules”. Of course, for India, a loose structured transit set up will be beneficial in order to maintain its trade unchecked. But for Pakistan’s benefit, strict transit rules should be agreed upon by the parties, not to create hurdles for India’s trade with Afghanistan, but for security reasons as well. Apparently, there is nothing wrong in signing such an MoU, but we are very much familiar with the fact that India is the major trade partner of Afghanistan; and having ideological conflicts with India, especially on Kashmir issue, Pakistan cannot be willing to open such a trade route to facilitate Indian trade with Afghanistan. We have, many a time, rejected the Indian offer of mutual trade by linking it with the resolution of Kashmir dispute, which if accepted, would have benefited Pakistan as well. So, how can we afford to open such a corridor to facilitate India, especially when we have very little benefit to get out of it? Another important facet is that of Foreign Direct Investment, which Afghanistan is expected to be a beneficiary of, if such an agreement is reached upon by the parties. Using a corridor, going through Pakistan will give these investors a chance to look around and invest in the surroundings of this corridor as well; but the fact cannot be overlooked that the investment area for the investors will become too vast and very few steps of the Afghan Government to facilitate foreign investors will shift many investors from Pakistan to Afghanistan. The recent swing of President Obama’s Administration from the Middle East to South Asia unleashes the major shift of policies in his administration. And the proceeding towards this Transit Trade Agreement can be considered as a milestone in this regard. At the same time, it shows the US long-term plan to stay in Afghanistan and it is crystal clear that the well facilitated foreign soldiers will certainly agree to stay for a longer period than they want to, in the present situation. In this regard, devoting $700 million by the US in order to train and equip Pakistan’s counterinsurgency capability cannot be ignored at all because this is an indirect investment in Afghan war and for the first time after 2003 that the funding for Afghan War has surpassed funding for the Iraq War. For Pakistan, this is the time to reconsider its role. Using good offices in order to convince US should be made more effective because Indians are already deeply embedded in Obama’s Administration. Denial of providing transit facility would create further complications in our relations with the neighbours as well as the US. But insisting on such Transit Rules which are in extreme favour of Pakistan can subside the euphoria propagated by the other stakeholders. Strict Transit Rules can be insisted on the grounds that India has been found involved in such activities in Pakistan, which might pose a threat to our sovereignty. Providing such a transit facility can be linked with the control of fighters’ influx in Pakistan through Afghan borders as well. At the same time, our army and intelligence agencies should be ready to face the new Indian role in Afghanistan. In short, it is of no use to cry over spilt milk; it’s time to pursue our national interest after reconsidering our policies with open eyes and be prepared to foresee and then face the challenges ahead.
DILAWAR KHAN
DEPT OF MASS COMMUNICATION
UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI
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